Imagine a wooden barn on a farm. On the surface, it may appear solid and stable, but hidden within the walls, termites have quietly weakened the structure. Now imagine a violent storm—howling winds and torrential rain—striking the barn. The walls groan, windows rattle, and the structure rocks and quivers under the relentless force, each gust threatening to bring it down.

What is the probability the barn will remain standing versus collapsing? And what does this have to do with suicide?

This scenario illustrates the Fluid Vulnerability Theory of suicide (Rudd, 2006),¹ which describes the factors that contribute to suicide risk and why predicting suicidal behavior is so difficult.

The theory proposes that suicide risk is fluid and dynamic, fluctuating based on the interaction of two types of risk factors:

  • Baseline risk factors – Chronic, relatively stable vulnerabilities such as a history of trauma or mental illness, family history of mental illness, persistent negative thinking patterns, or past suicide attempts.
  • Acute risk factors – Stressors in the present moment (activating events) that trigger a crisis, such as substantial loss or threat of loss involving key relationships, health, finances, reputation, or freedom.

In our metaphor, the termites represent the hidden, baseline vulnerabilities that have quietly eroded the barn’s structure—a person’s resilience. The storm represents acute stressors, activating events that cause the “shaking,” or the crisis phase when suicide may be considered or suicidal urges acted upon.

Will the barn collapse—will suicidal behavior occur, or not? According to the Fluid Vulnerability Theory, this depends on the interaction between these two groups of factors: the combined effects of the hidden termite damage and the intensity of the storm.

  • If termite damage is slight but the storm is severe, the barn is at risk of collapsing.
  • If termite damage is extensive, even a modest storm could cause the barn to collapse.
  • If termite damage is slight and the storm light, the barn is likely to remain standing.

This explains why one person may “collapse” following a major loss (such as an unwanted divorce), while another does not.

Another way to conceptualize suicide risk is as a “tipping point,” where suicidal behavior occurs once the combined risk reaches a threshold—let’s call it 100:

  • One person may reach 100 with baseline (termites) at 70 + storm (shaking) at 30.
  • Another may have baseline at 20 + storm at 80.

Either way, when the total reaches 100, suicide risk becomes dangerously high.

The good news: Suicide risk is not static, and we can intervene at every stage:

  • Prevent termites: Address long-term vulnerabilities through supportive relationships, healthy spirituality, resilience-building education, psychotherapy, medical treatment.
  • Prepare for storms: Help individuals develop coping skills and protective factors.
  • Stabilize shaking: Offer timely support and interventions when acute distress arises.
  • Respond to crisis: Remove lethal means, provide immediate support, and never minimize warning signs.

¹ Rudd, M. D. (2006). Fluid vulnerability theory: a cognitive approach to understanding the process of acute and chronic risk. In T. E. Ellis (Ed.), Cognition and suicide: Theory, research, and therapy (pp. 355-368). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.

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